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Dirección y Gestión de la Seguridad Global.

 

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Oxford Analytica

International consulting firm providing strategic analysis of world events. Clients of Oxford Analytica consist of governments, international institutions, and public sector bodies, as well as financial institutions, corporations, and other private sector organizations.The company has access to a network of over 1,400 academics and specialists around the world.


Global Trends to 2035: Geo - politics and international power


This study considers eight economic, societal, and political global trends that will shape the world to 2035, namely an ageing population, fragile globalisation, a technological revolution, climate change, shifting power relations, new areas of state competition, politics of the information age and ecological threats. It first examines how they may affect some of the fundamental assumptions of the international system. Then it considers four scenarios based on two factors: an unstable or stable Europe and world. Finally, it presents policy options for the EU to address the challenges created by these trends.

 
EXECUTIVE SUMMARY

Section 1: Trends since 2015
 
In 2015, the European Strategy and Policy Analysis System (ESPAS) launched its report “Global Trends to 2030: Can the EU meet the challenges ahead? ” This report aims to up date and extend that report by including developments that have occurred in European and global geopolitics since then, and will projectdevelopments out to 2035.

By paying attention to longer -term trend development, how breakthrough technologies may be overhyped, and the reinforcing intersection of trends, this report attempts to avoid the cognitive trap of placing too much emphasis on the most high-profile events that emerged at the time of its writing. Nonetheless, there are some major stories that, despite being relatively recent, could have major long - term implications for Europe.
 
-US President Donald Trump. While immediate US foreign policy is highly uncertain, given Trump’s unorthodox policy agenda, in the long- term it can be expected that the usual pressures and incentives of the international system will come into effect and force the United States to engage with the world along the lines of policy under the Obama Administration and George W. Bush’s second term.
 
-Brexit. This report does not make a prediction for how or whether Brexit will be negotiated. It does asume that the population and economy of the UK will remain broadly the same as projected and that by 2035, at least, it will have an extensive relationship with the EU, either as a member or partner.
 
-Refugee/migration crisis. Although the numbers of illegal border crossings have dropped since their peak in 2015 and a resolution to the conflicts in Syria and Iraq will presumably reduce the pressure for migration from there, migration pressures overall will increase. It is likely that 2015 could be a precedent for the next time a conflict or natural disaster occurs in Europe’s neighbourhood.
 
-Information and cyber warfare. Despite the near-certainty of damaging cyberattacks as internet-enabled devices proliferate and zero-day vulnerabilities are found by criminal actors and hostile governments, this report assumes that the developed world will remain dependent on the internet and technology. In some areas, such as top-level political campaigns, there may be a reversion to pre-internet workflows, but the economic advantages of information and communications technology will continue to outweigh the risks of hacks.
 
-Terrorism. The high-profile nature of the lone wolf attacks that have occurred across Europe in the last few years inspire copycats and are difficult to prevent. Security services will not be able to track every potential terrorist in Europe, especially as the collapse of the Islamic State in Syria and Iraq triggers a return for foreign fighters. Individual attacks against ‘soft targets’ are likely to persist as a constant threat in Europe, alongside more traditional modes and sources of terrorism.
 
 

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Fuente: Global Trends Unit
Fecha: 2017

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